. * Statistical Routines Used for *
. * Caglar Ozden and Eric Reinhardt *
. * "The Perversity of Preferences: GSP and Developing Country Trade Policies, 1976-2000" *
. * Journal of Development Economics *
. * forthcoming *
. * Date: Sept 1, 2004 *
. * Authors: Caglar Ozden and Eric Reinhardt *
. * Note: *
. * Because of missing data in the dependent variables and in some covariates, as described in the a
> rticle, *
. * each regression model uses a somewhat different subset of the total observations in this file *
. * Models 1, 2, and 3 are the OLS models of Duties, Tariff, and Closure, respectively *
. * Models 4, 5, and 6 are the IV models of Duties, Tariff, and Closure, respectively *
. * So that those two sets of models draw on exactly the same observations, we estimated *
. * the first set, then constrained the second set to run on just the sample used in the first set, 
> *
. * and finally re-estimated the first set on just the set of observations used for the second set, 
> as above. *
. * The resulting samples are defined by the dummy variables Model1, Model2, Model3 *
. * Note also: The auxiliary regressions, Models 7, 8, 9, and 10 in the paper have corresponding 
> *
. * sample dummies in this dataset *
. des Mod*

              storage  display     value
variable name   type   format      label      variable label
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Model1          byte   %9.0g                  Model 1 & 4 Sample
Model2          byte   %9.0g                  Model 2 & 5 Sample
Model3          byte   %9.0g                  Model 3 & 6 Sample
Model7          byte   %9.0g                  Model 7 & 8 Sample
ModelAny        byte   %9.0g                  This observation is included in
                                                at least one of the paper's
                                                regression samples

. * The variable ModelAny, used for the figures, is 1 if the observation is used for any of the p
> aper's regression samples defined as above *
* The variable ModelAny, used for the figures, is 1 if the observation is used for any of the paper's regression samples defined as above *
* The paper's regressions also use a 'Trend' variable, which is different for every dependent variable *
* These are 'Trend*' in this file. *
. des Trend*

              storage  display     value
variable name   type   format      label      variable label
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend1          float  %9.0g                  Trend (for Duties, Model 1 & 4)
                                                t-1
Trend2          float  %9.0g                  Trend (for Tariff, Model 2 & 5)
                                                t-1
Trend3          float  %9.0g                  Trend (for Closure, Model 3, 6,
                                                7, 8) t-1
Trend9          float  %8.0g                  Trend (for TRI, Model 9) t-1
Trend10         float  %8.0g                  Trend (for HF, Model 10) t-1

. * Model 1 *

. newey2 Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, lag(1) i(cnum) 
> t(year) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =      1503
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,  1495)  =     75.03
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
      Duties |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   1.662768   .4813233     3.45   0.001     .7186268    2.606908
      Trend1 |   .2761517   .0590101     4.68   0.000     .1604003    .3919031
         IMF |  -.5210012   .3665168    -1.42   0.155    -1.239943    .1979405
      LogGDP |  -.1477049    .135931    -1.09   0.277    -.4143407     .118931
   LogIncome |   -2.67909   .2259546   -11.86   0.000    -3.122312   -2.235868
  Landlocked |  -.3424807   .5458522    -0.63   0.530    -1.413198    .7282368
      Growth |   .0524608   .0277592     1.89   0.059    -.0019903     .106912
       _cons |   27.11762   3.036189     8.93   0.000     21.16197    33.07326
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 2 *
. newey2 Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, lag(1) i(cnum) 
> t(year) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =       821
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,   813)  =     39.38
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
      Tariff |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   3.827292   1.188918     3.22   0.001     1.493581    6.161003
      Trend2 |   .9328808   .0821929    11.35   0.000     .7715455    1.094216
         IMF |  -.7162559   1.038082    -0.69   0.490    -2.753892     1.32138
      LogGDP |   2.805757   .4012565     6.99   0.000     2.018136    3.593378
   LogIncome |  -7.013981   .8127819    -8.63   0.000     -8.60938   -5.418583
  Landlocked |   -3.19238   1.958549    -1.63   0.103    -7.036789    .6520294
      Growth |   .1611556   .0840948     1.92   0.056     -.003913    .3262241
       _cons |   -16.4171   7.256083    -2.26   0.024    -30.65996   -2.174233
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 3 *
. newey2 Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, lag(1) i(cnum)
>  t(year) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =      2640
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,  2632)  =    149.96
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   8.457961   3.824553     2.21   0.027     .9585251     15.9574
      Trend3 |   .3558299   .2032656     1.75   0.080    -.0427466    .7544064
         IMF |   .5366738   1.027988     0.52   0.602    -1.479073     2.55242
      LogGDP |   7.423621   .3202958    23.18   0.000     6.795564    8.051678
   LogIncome |  -10.56407   .7455501   -14.17   0.000    -12.02599   -9.102143
  Landlocked |   2.155144   1.660487     1.30   0.194    -1.100848    5.411137
      Growth |  -.3283581    .129059    -2.54   0.011    -.5814254   -.0752908
       _cons |  -127.2146   11.87637   -10.71   0.000    -150.5026   -103.9267
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 4 *
. treatreg Duties Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 San
> ctions GrowthUS Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -4742.402  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3351  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      1503

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    844.12
Log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Duties       |
      Trend1 |   .2670177     .04731     5.64   0.000     .1742918    .3597436
         IMF |   -.581536   .3024326    -1.92   0.054    -1.174293    .0112211
      LogGDP |  -.1300478   .1015898    -1.28   0.201    -.3291602    .0690646
   LogIncome |  -2.668188   .1689986   -15.79   0.000     -2.99942   -2.336957
  Landlocked |  -.3463183   .4175391    -0.83   0.407     -1.16468    .4720433
      Growth |   .0510836   .0252712     2.02   0.043     .0015529    .1006143
         GSP |   2.298167   .7657223     3.00   0.003     .7973788    3.798955
       _cons |   26.16631   2.437794    10.73   0.000     21.38832     30.9443
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   2.701435   .2540714    10.63   0.000     2.203465    3.199406
   Sanctions |  -.7904319   .1974638    -4.00   0.000    -1.177454   -.4034099
    GrowthUS |  -.0370915   .0474205    -0.78   0.434    -.1300339    .0558509
      Trend1 |   .1247678   .0265346     4.70   0.000      .072761    .1767746
         IMF |   .5826112   .1618053     3.60   0.000     .2654787    .8997437
      LogGDP |  -.2200893   .0458006    -4.81   0.000    -.3098568   -.1303218
   LogIncome |  -.1237799   .0693402    -1.79   0.074    -.2596842    .0121244
  Landlocked |   .3524495   .2867254     1.23   0.219    -.2095219     .914421
      Growth |   .0269484   .0132509     2.03   0.042     .0009772    .0529196
       _cons |   4.163463   1.221356     3.41   0.001      1.76965    6.557277
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.1014028    .114911    -0.88   0.378    -.3266242    .1238186
    /lnsigma |   1.637619   .0354836    46.15   0.000     1.568072    1.707166
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.1010567   .1137375                     -.3154842    .1231897
       sigma |    5.14291   .1824888                      4.797392    5.513312
      lambda |  -.5197253    .587314                      -1.67084     .631389
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     0.78   Prob > chi2 = 0.3775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 5 *
. treatreg Tariff Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 Per
> centLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3286.9233  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.1327  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0101  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0098  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       821

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    365.74
Log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0098              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Tariff       |
      Trend2 |   .8846148   .0675258    13.10   0.000     .7522667    1.016963
         IMF |   -.948083   .8943519    -1.06   0.289    -2.700981    .8048146
      LogGDP |   2.893316   .3397927     8.51   0.000     2.227334    3.559297
   LogIncome |  -6.682737   .6694435    -9.98   0.000    -7.994823   -5.370652
  Landlocked |  -3.133501   1.650258    -1.90   0.058    -6.367948    .1009458
      Growth |   .1805696   .0782676     2.31   0.021     .0271679    .3339714
         GSP |   8.447534   1.481695     5.70   0.000     5.543465     11.3516
       _cons |  -23.97096   6.498215    -3.69   0.000    -36.70722   -11.23469
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   2.936278   .4102686     7.16   0.000     2.132166    3.740389
 PercentLeft |   .0010104   .0291783     0.03   0.972     -.056178    .0581988
        Ally |  -.2843102   .2349538    -1.21   0.226    -.7448111    .1761907
    Distance |  -.1309197   .0504278    -2.60   0.009    -.2297565    -.032083
   Sanctions |  -.3889415    .267319    -1.45   0.146     -.912877    .1349941
    GrowthUS |   .0506084   .0541243     0.94   0.350    -.0554733    .1566902
      Trend2 |   .0692868   .0342616     2.02   0.043     .0021353    .1364384
         IMF |  -.0737415   .1833925    -0.40   0.688    -.4331843    .2857012
      LogGDP |  -.0685231   .0653197    -1.05   0.294    -.1965473    .0595011
   LogIncome |  -.5643142   .0933554    -6.04   0.000    -.7472875    -.381341
  Landlocked |    -.23036   .3169829    -0.73   0.467    -.8516352    .3909151
      Growth |    -.02079   .0204849    -1.01   0.310    -.0609397    .0193598
       _cons |   4.277678   2.437573     1.75   0.079    -.4998776    9.055233
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.4733712   .0923817    -5.12   0.000     -.654436   -.2923065
    /lnsigma |     2.4534   .0436188    56.25   0.000     2.367909    2.538891
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.4409192   .0744218                     -.5746487   -.2842563
       sigma |   11.62781   .5071911                      10.67504    12.66562
      lambda |  -5.126925   .9512542                     -6.991349   -3.262502
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    26.26   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 6 *
. treatreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 Gr
> owthUS Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.608  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -12372.15  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.149  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      2640

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   1791.68
Log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.149              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Closure      |
      Trend3 |   .3501329   .1744651     2.01   0.045     .0081875    .6920783
         IMF |   .3284689   .8021363     0.41   0.682    -1.243689    1.900627
      LogGDP |   7.483421   .2504391    29.88   0.000     6.992569    7.974273
   LogIncome |  -10.41562   .5715818   -18.22   0.000     -11.5359   -9.295338
  Landlocked |    2.22535   1.220233     1.82   0.068    -.1662637    4.616963
      Growth |  -.3279909   .1192206    -2.75   0.006     -.561659   -.0943227
         GSP |   11.84621   3.960596     2.99   0.003      4.08358    19.60883
       _cons |   -132.908   10.81167   -12.29   0.000    -154.0985   -111.7176
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   3.070598   .1844431    16.65   0.000     2.709096      3.4321
    GrowthUS |  -.0315654   .0276919    -1.14   0.254    -.0858406    .0227098
      Trend3 |   .0100126   .0128814     0.78   0.437    -.0152346    .0352597
         IMF |   .2919099   .1049607     2.78   0.005     .0861906    .4976292
      LogGDP |  -.0668701   .0292763    -2.28   0.022    -.1242506   -.0094895
   LogIncome |  -.2770887   .0573312    -4.83   0.000    -.3894559   -.1647215
  Landlocked |  -.1407577   .1724121    -0.82   0.414    -.4786792    .1971638
      Growth |   .0080921   .0080712     1.00   0.316    -.0077271    .0239113
       _cons |   2.901656   .8674016     3.35   0.001      1.20158    4.601731
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.1454668   .1029305    -1.41   0.158    -.3472069    .0562733
    /lnsigma |   3.142292   .0586105    53.61   0.000     3.027417    3.257166
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.1444493   .1007828                     -.3338962     .056214
       sigma |   23.15687   1.357235                      20.64384    25.97582
      lambda |  -3.344995   2.362091                     -7.974608    1.284618
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     2.00   Prob > chi2 = 0.1576
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 7 *
. newey2 Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1, lag(1)
>  i(cnum) t(year) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =       993
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,   985)  =     57.17
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |    1.68759   .6760285     2.50   0.013     .3609688    3.014212
      Trend3 |  -.3904273   .8823533    -0.44   0.658    -2.121936    1.341081
         IMF |  -2.811927   1.701141    -1.65   0.099    -6.150204    .5263508
      LogGDP |   6.334098   .5560029    11.39   0.000     5.243012    7.425185
   LogIncome |  -10.45306   1.068207    -9.79   0.000    -12.54928    -8.35684
  Landlocked |   3.808289   2.603393     1.46   0.144    -1.300545    8.917123
      Growth |  -.6204612   .1912505    -3.24   0.001    -.9957665    -.245156
       _cons |  -132.1884   42.10602    -3.14   0.002    -214.8162   -49.56057
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 8 *
. newey2 Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth (GSPfraction=GSPfractionl3 Percent
> Left GrowthUS Sanctions) if Model7==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(year) force


IV(2SLS) regression with Newey-West standard errors Number of obs  =       993
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,   985)  =     56.06
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 GSPfraction |   3.098694   1.122681     2.76   0.006      .895573    5.301814
      Trend3 |   -.725594   .9218134    -0.79   0.431    -2.534538     1.08335
         IMF |   -2.65561   1.705369    -1.56   0.120    -6.002184    .6909641
      LogGDP |   6.080719    .576923    10.54   0.000      4.94858    7.212858
   LogIncome |  -10.18376   1.047128    -9.73   0.000    -12.23862   -8.128904
  Landlocked |   4.365923   2.658021     1.64   0.101    -.8501125    9.581958
      Growth |  -.6491812   .2044406    -3.18   0.002     -1.05037   -.2479921
       _cons |  -145.3261   43.13011    -3.37   0.001    -229.9635   -60.68863
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  GSPfraction
Instruments:   Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth GSPfractionl3
               PercentLeft GrowthUS Sanctions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 9 *
. * since this is not paired with a matching IV model, it uses the whole eligible sample *
. oprobit TRI GSPfractionl1 Trend9 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth, robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -806.57562
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -767.30101
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -767.24244
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -767.24241

Ordered probit estimates                          Number of obs   =        386
                                                  Wald chi2(7)    =      62.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudo-likelihood = -767.24241                Pseudo R2       =     0.0488

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
         TRI |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |   .0656954   .0327332     2.01   0.045     .0015396    .1298513
      Trend9 |   .4454396    .292757     1.52   0.128    -.1283536    1.019233
         IMF |  -.9354532   .1351949    -6.92   0.000     -1.20043    -.670476
      LogGDP |   .0640929    .030392     2.11   0.035     .0045256    .1236601
   LogIncome |   -.318911   .0634245    -5.03   0.000    -.4432207   -.1946012
  Landlocked |    .110534   .1666291     0.66   0.507     -.216053     .437121
      Growth |  -.0036019    .008951    -0.40   0.687    -.0211455    .0139418
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cut1 |  -.2660106    1.51091          (Ancillary parameters)
       _cut2 |   .1269284   1.510265 
       _cut3 |   .4479391   1.511439 
       _cut4 |   .8541631   1.511968 
       _cut5 |   1.538076   1.512932 
       _cut6 |   2.003726   1.516094 
       _cut7 |   2.296555   1.516579 
       _cut8 |   2.868411   1.520442 
       _cut9 |    2.90274   1.525314 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Model 10 *
. oprobit HF GSPfractionl1 Trend10 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth, robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -798.05471
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -722.66932
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -721.99473
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -721.98398
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -721.98398

Ordered probit estimates                          Number of obs   =        546
                                                  Wald chi2(7)    =     159.04
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudo-likelihood = -721.98398                Pseudo R2       =     0.0953

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
          HF |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |   .1020165   .0400861     2.54   0.011     .0234492    .1805837
     Trend10 |   .5500505   .4411241     1.25   0.212    -.3145368    1.414638
         IMF |  -.3006232   .1021167    -2.94   0.003    -.5007683   -.1004781
      LogGDP |   -.059146   .0328788    -1.80   0.072    -.1235872    .0052953
   LogIncome |  -.4478503   .0583289    -7.68   0.000    -.5621729   -.3335277
  Landlocked |   .0044051   .1475846     0.03   0.976    -.2848555    .2936657
      Growth |   .0154712   .0099562     1.55   0.120    -.0040426    .0349849
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cut1 |  -4.544561   1.823023          (Ancillary parameters)
       _cut2 |  -3.572281    1.80478 
       _cut3 |  -2.787295   1.806618 
       _cut4 |   -2.04716   1.808353 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * Table 1 *
. su year Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        year |      1503    1987.322    6.542198       1976       2000
      Duties |      1503    8.519719     6.21755          0    55.8221
       GSPl1 |      1503    .9547572    .2079055          0          1
      Trend1 |      1503    9.831875    3.033196   3.922817    16.8729
         IMF |      1503    .4091816    .4918465          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
      LogGDP |      1503    22.79298    1.942561   17.93094   27.34982
   LogIncome |      1503    7.235454    1.176818   4.511094   10.17035
  Landlocked |      1503    .4008849    .3712384          0          1
      Growth |      1503    3.831838    5.684107  -26.47879   27.22892

. su year Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        year |       821    1991.857    5.122205       1981       2000
      Tariff |       821    20.17808    15.12923          0      102.2
       GSPl1 |       821    .9135201    .2812427          0          1
      Trend2 |       821    21.45215    5.906588   11.36667   30.69091
         IMF |       821    .5140073    .5001084          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
      LogGDP |       821    23.47958    1.842984   18.57496   27.34982
   LogIncome |       821     7.36895    1.253559   4.592436   10.15365
  Landlocked |       821    .4120463    .3608543          0          1
      Growth |       821    3.585611    4.639579  -22.93405   19.01176

. su year Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        year |      2640    1989.023    6.906635       1976       2000
     Closure |      2640   -44.58994    28.95074  -446.2701  -1.249167
       GSPl1 |      2640    .9405303    .2365465          0          1
      Trend3 |      2640   -45.42363    3.230534  -53.35071  -38.37869
         IMF |      2640    .4136364    .4925781          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
      LogGDP |      2640     22.3124    2.027126   17.14312   27.34982
   LogIncome |      2640    7.078209    1.208991   4.439384   10.17035
  Landlocked |      2640    .4055985    .3850712          0          1
      Growth |      2640    3.433461    6.451781      -50.2   86.92106

. su Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |       993    -46.2782    26.80798  -174.9484  -1.249167
GSPfractio~1 |       993    .9049188     1.52023          0   14.79297
      Trend3 |       993   -46.68954    .8383501  -47.71016  -45.02708
         IMF |       993    .4803625     .499866          0          1
      LogGDP |       993    22.58789    2.069321   17.39527   27.34982
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
   LogIncome |       993    7.164066    1.276546   4.439384   10.17035
  Landlocked |       993    .4062739    .3821538          0          1
      Growth |       993    3.593693    6.353072      -50.2   86.92106

. tab GSPl1 GSP if Model1==1

GSP Status |    GSP Status i,t
     i,t-1 | Dropped f     On GSP |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |        64          4 |        68 
         1 |        14      1,421 |     1,435 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |        78      1,425 |     1,503 


. tab GSPl1 GSP if Model2==1

GSP Status |    GSP Status i,t
     i,t-1 | Dropped f     On GSP |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |        68          3 |        71 
         1 |        13        737 |       750 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |        81        740 |       821 


. tab GSPl1 GSP if Model3==1

GSP Status |    GSP Status i,t
     i,t-1 | Dropped f     On GSP |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |       149          8 |       157 
         1 |        26      2,457 |     2,483 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |       175      2,465 |     2,640 


. tab GSPl1 GSP if Model7==1

GSP Status |    GSP Status i,t
     i,t-1 | Dropped f     On GSP |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |       110          3 |       113 
         1 |        10        870 |       880 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |       120        873 |       993 


. tab country GSPl1 if Model1==1

                      |   GSP Status i,t-1
            Country i |         0          1 |     Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
              Albania |         0          4 |         4 
            Argentina |         0         23 |        23 
              Bahamas |         0         10 |        10 
              Bahrain |         1         15 |        16 
           Bangladesh |         0         15 |        15 
             Barbados |         0         14 |        14 
              Belarus |         0          1 |         1 
               Belize |         0          2 |         2 
                Benin |         0          4 |         4 
               Bhutan |         0         17 |        17 
              Bolivia |         0         15 |        15 
             Botswana |         0         21 |        21 
               Brazil |         0         16 |        16 
             Bulgaria |         0          9 |         9 
         Burkina Faso |         0         18 |        18 
              Burundi |         0         11 |        11 
             Cameroon |         0         22 |        22 
Central African Repub |         0          1 |         1 
                Chile |         0         12 |        12 
             Colombia |         0         24 |        24 
              Comoros |         0          6 |         6 
                Congo |         0         10 |        10 
           Costa Rica |         0         23 |        23 
        Cote d'Ivoire |         0         13 |        13 
              Croatia |         0          7 |         7 
               Cyprus |         1         22 |        23 
       Czech Republic |         0          6 |         6 
             Dominica |         0          1 |         1 
   Dominican Republic |         0         23 |        23 
              Ecuador |         0         15 |        15 
                Egypt |         0         22 |        22 
          El Salvador |         0          2 |         2 
              Estonia |         0          7 |         7 
             Ethiopia |        10          0 |        10 
                 Fiji |         0         18 |        18 
               Gambia |         0         12 |        12 
                Ghana |         0         18 |        18 
              Grenada |         0          5 |         5 
            Guatemala |         0          6 |         6 
               Guinea |         0          6 |         6 
        Guinea-Bissau |         0          6 |         6 
               Guyana |         0          9 |         9 
                Haiti |         0         10 |        10 
             Honduras |         0          6 |         6 
              Hungary |         0         10 |        10 
                India |         0         24 |        24 
            Indonesia |         0         19 |        19 
               Israel |         3         21 |        24 
              Jamaica |         0          9 |         9 
               Jordan |         0         23 |        23 
           Kazakhstan |         0          3 |         3 
                Kenya |         0         23 |        23 
                Korea |         7         15 |        22 
            Kyrgyztan |         0          5 |         5 
               Latvia |         0          6 |         6 
              Lesotho |         0         18 |        18 
            Lithuania |         0          7 |         7 
           Madagascar |         0         14 |        14 
               Malawi |         0         14 |        14 
             Malaysia |         3         22 |        25 
             Maldives |         0          8 |         8 
                 Mali |         0         13 |        13 
                Malta |         0         21 |        21 
           Mauritania |         0          4 |         4 
            Mauritius |         0         24 |        24 
               Mexico |         3         17 |        20 
              Moldova |         0          2 |         2 
              Morocco |         0         20 |        20 
              Namibia |         0          3 |         3 
                Nepal |         0         24 |        24 
            Nicaragua |         7         11 |        18 
                Niger |         0          5 |         5 
                 Oman |         0         18 |        18 
             Pakistan |         2         21 |        23 
               Panama |         1         14 |        15 
     Papau New Guinea |         0         23 |        23 
             Paraguay |         3         15 |        18 
                 Peru |         0         23 |        23 
          Philippines |         0         23 |        23 
               Poland |         0          6 |         6 
             Portugal |        11         12 |        23 
              Romania |         6          5 |        11 
               Russia |         0          4 |         4 
               Rwanda |         0          9 |         9 
          Saint Lucia |         0         10 |        10 
Saint Vincent and the |         0         17 |        17 
              Senegal |         0          9 |         9 
           Seychelles |         0         11 |        11 
         Sierra Leone |         0         19 |        19 
            Singapore |        10         15 |        25 
             Slovakia |         0          4 |         4 
             Slovenia |         0          7 |         7 
      Solomon Islands |         0         11 |        11 
         South Africa |         0          6 |         6 
            Sri Lanka |         0         24 |        24 
   St Kitts and Nevis |         0          9 |         9 
             Suriname |         0          3 |         3 
            Swaziland |         0         16 |        16 
                Syria |         0         18 |        18 
             Thailand |         0         24 |        24 
                 Togo |         0         11 |        11 
                Tonga |         0          9 |         9 
  Trinidad and Tobago |         0          9 |         9 
              Tunisia |         0         24 |        24 
               Turkey |         0         23 |        23 
               Uganda |         0          7 |         7 
              Uruguay |         0         22 |        22 
              Vanuatu |         0          9 |         9 
            Venezuela |         0         20 |        20 
                Yemen |         0          8 |         8 
               Zambia |         0         11 |        11 
             Zimbabwe |         0         14 |        14 
----------------------+----------------------+----------
                Total |        68      1,435 |     1,503 


. tab country GSPl1 if Model2==1

                      |   GSP Status i,t-1
            Country i |         0          1 |     Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
              Albania |         0          1 |         1 
 Antigua and Barbados |         0          4 |         4 
            Argentina |         2         17 |        19 
              Bahamas |         0          2 |         2 
              Bahrain |         1          3 |         4 
           Bangladesh |         0         12 |        12 
             Barbados |         0          5 |         5 
              Belarus |         0          4 |         4 
               Belize |         0          5 |         5 
                Benin |         0         11 |        11 
              Bolivia |         0         15 |        15 
             Botswana |         2          3 |         5 
               Brazil |         0         20 |        20 
               Brunei |         1          0 |         1 
             Bulgaria |         0          3 |         3 
         Burkina Faso |         0          5 |         5 
                Burma |         1          0 |         1 
              Burundi |         0          3 |         3 
             Cameroon |         0          5 |         5 
           Cape Verde |         0          2 |         2 
Central African Repub |         0          3 |         3 
                 Chad |         0          3 |         3 
                Chile |         2         13 |        15 
             Colombia |         0         15 |        15 
                Congo |         0          4 |         4 
           Costa Rica |         0         10 |        10 
        Cote d'Ivoire |         0         15 |        15 
               Cyprus |         1          8 |         9 
       Czech Republic |         0          6 |         6 
             Dominica |         0          4 |         4 
   Dominican Republic |         0          3 |         3 
              Ecuador |         0         10 |        10 
                Egypt |         0         10 |        10 
          El Salvador |         0          9 |         9 
              Estonia |         0          5 |         5 
             Ethiopia |         1          2 |         3 
                 Fiji |         0          1 |         1 
               Gambia |         0          2 |         2 
                Ghana |         0         15 |        15 
              Grenada |         0          3 |         3 
            Guatemala |         0          8 |         8 
        Guinea-Bissau |         0          6 |         6 
               Guyana |         0          4 |         4 
                Haiti |         0          3 |         3 
             Honduras |         0          2 |         2 
            Hong Kong |        10         10 |        20 
              Hungary |         0          7 |         7 
                India |         0         13 |        13 
            Indonesia |         0         11 |        11 
               Israel |         2          6 |         8 
              Jamaica |         0         11 |        11 
               Jordan |         0         13 |        13 
                Kenya |         0         12 |        12 
                Korea |        10          9 |        19 
               Latvia |         0          4 |         4 
              Lebanon |         0          2 |         2 
              Lesotho |         0          1 |         1 
            Lithuania |         0          3 |         3 
           Madagascar |         0          5 |         5 
               Malawi |         0         12 |        12 
             Malaysia |         3         12 |        15 
                 Mali |         0          5 |         5 
                Malta |         0          4 |         4 
           Mauritania |         1          8 |         9 
            Mauritius |         0         11 |        11 
               Mexico |         4         13 |        17 
              Morocco |         0         11 |        11 
           Mozambique |         0          3 |         3 
              Namibia |         0          1 |         1 
                Nepal |         0          7 |         7 
            Nicaragua |         7          1 |         8 
                Niger |         0          1 |         1 
                 Oman |         0          7 |         7 
             Pakistan |         1         15 |        16 
               Panama |         0          3 |         3 
     Papau New Guinea |         0          4 |         4 
             Paraguay |         1          9 |        10 
                 Peru |         0         17 |        17 
          Philippines |         0         19 |        19 
               Poland |         0          8 |         8 
              Romania |         2          4 |         6 
               Russia |         0          5 |         5 
               Rwanda |         0          3 |         3 
          Saint Lucia |         0          2 |         2 
Saint Vincent and the |         0          2 |         2 
              Senegal |         0          8 |         8 
         Sierra Leone |         0          6 |         6 
            Singapore |         9          5 |        14 
             Slovakia |         0          4 |         4 
             Slovenia |         0          2 |         2 
         South Africa |         0          6 |         6 
            Sri Lanka |         0         11 |        11 
   St Kitts and Nevis |         0          2 |         2 
             Suriname |         0          3 |         3 
            Swaziland |         0          1 |         1 
                Syria |         0          5 |         5 
               Taiwan |        10          6 |        16 
             Tanzania |         0         12 |        12 
             Thailand |         0         10 |        10 
                 Togo |         0          4 |         4 
  Trinidad and Tobago |         0          7 |         7 
              Tunisia |         0         13 |        13 
               Turkey |         0         10 |        10 
               Uganda |         0          5 |         5 
              Ukraine |         0          3 |         3 
              Uruguay |         0         15 |        15 
            Venezuela |         0         14 |        14 
        Western Samoa |         0          1 |         1 
                Yemen |         0          1 |         1 
               Zambia |         0          7 |         7 
             Zimbabwe |         0         11 |        11 
----------------------+----------------------+----------
                Total |        71        750 |       821 


. tab country GSPl1 if Model3==1

                      |   GSP Status i,t-1
            Country i |         0          1 |     Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
              Albania |         0          8 |         8 
               Angola |         0         13 |        13 
 Antigua and Barbados |         0         17 |        17 
            Argentina |         2         23 |        25 
              Armenia |         0          5 |         5 
              Bahamas |         3         21 |        24 
              Bahrain |         1         16 |        17 
           Bangladesh |         0         25 |        25 
             Barbados |         0         24 |        24 
              Belarus |         0          6 |         6 
               Belize |         0         19 |        19 
                Benin |         0         25 |        25 
               Bhutan |         0         19 |        19 
              Bolivia |         0         25 |        25 
               Bosnia |         0          5 |         5 
             Botswana |         2         22 |        24 
               Brazil |         0         25 |        25 
             Bulgaria |         0         10 |        10 
         Burkina Faso |         0         24 |        24 
                Burma |         7         15 |        22 
              Burundi |         0         25 |        25 
             Cambodia |         0          3 |         3 
             Cameroon |         0         24 |        24 
           Cape Verde |         0         14 |        14 
Central African Repub |         1         23 |        24 
                 Chad |         0         24 |        24 
                Chile |         2         23 |        25 
             Colombia |         0         25 |        25 
              Comoros |         0         18 |        18 
                Congo |         0         24 |        24 
           Costa Rica |         0         25 |        25 
        Cote d'Ivoire |         0         25 |        25 
              Croatia |         0          7 |         7 
               Cyprus |         2         22 |        24 
       Czech Republic |         0          6 |         6 
             Djibouti |         0          4 |         4 
             Dominica |         0         20 |        20 
   Dominican Republic |         0         25 |        25 
              Ecuador |         0         21 |        21 
                Egypt |         0         25 |        25 
          El Salvador |         0         25 |        25 
    Equatorial Guinea |         0         13 |        13 
              Estonia |         0          8 |         8 
             Ethiopia |        11          6 |        17 
                 Fiji |         0         25 |        25 
                Gabon |         0          2 |         2 
               Gambia |         0         25 |        25 
                Ghana |         0         25 |        25 
              Grenada |         0         20 |        20 
            Guatemala |         0         25 |        25 
               Guinea |         0         12 |        12 
        Guinea-Bissau |         0         24 |        24 
               Guyana |         0         25 |        25 
                Haiti |         0         23 |        23 
             Honduras |         0         25 |        25 
            Hong Kong |        10         15 |        25 
              Hungary |         0         10 |        10 
                India |         0         25 |        25 
            Indonesia |         0         21 |        21 
               Israel |         4         21 |        25 
              Jamaica |         0         25 |        25 
               Jordan |         0         24 |        24 
           Kazakhstan |         0          7 |         7 
                Kenya |         0         25 |        25 
             Kiribati |         0         15 |        15 
                Korea |        10         15 |        25 
            Kyrgyztan |         0          7 |         7 
                 Laos |        14          0 |        14 
               Latvia |         0          7 |         7 
              Lebanon |         0         11 |        11 
              Lesotho |         0         24 |        24 
            Lithuania |         0          7 |         7 
                Macau |         2         12 |        14 
            Macedonia |         0          6 |         6 
           Madagascar |         0         24 |        24 
               Malawi |         0         25 |        25 
             Malaysia |         3         22 |        25 
             Maldives |         4         14 |        18 
                 Mali |         0         25 |        25 
                Malta |         0         24 |        24 
           Mauritania |         5         19 |        24 
            Mauritius |         0         25 |        25 
               Mexico |         5         20 |        25 
           Micronesia |         9          3 |        12 
              Moldova |         0          5 |         5 
             Mongolia |         0          1 |         1 
              Morocco |         0         25 |        25 
           Mozambique |         0         18 |        18 
              Namibia |         0          9 |         9 
                Nepal |         0         25 |        25 
            Nicaragua |        12         13 |        25 
                Niger |         0         24 |        24 
              Nigeria |         0          1 |         1 
                 Oman |         0         21 |        21 
             Pakistan |         3         22 |        25 
               Panama |         1         23 |        24 
     Papau New Guinea |         0         24 |        24 
             Paraguay |         3         22 |        25 
                 Peru |         0         25 |        25 
          Philippines |         0         25 |        25 
               Poland |         0         10 |        10 
             Portugal |        12         12 |        24 
              Romania |         6         14 |        20 
               Russia |         0          8 |         8 
               Rwanda |         0         24 |        24 
          Saint Lucia |         0         19 |        19 
Saint Vincent and the |         0         20 |        20 
Sao Tome and Principe |         0         13 |        13 
              Senegal |         0         24 |        24 
           Seychelles |         0         25 |        25 
         Sierra Leone |         0         25 |        25 
            Singapore |        10         15 |        25 
             Slovakia |         0          6 |         6 
             Slovenia |         0          7 |         7 
      Solomon Islands |         0         21 |        21 
         South Africa |         0          7 |         7 
            Sri Lanka |         0         24 |        24 
   St Kitts and Nevis |         0         16 |        16 
             Suriname |         0         23 |        23 
            Swaziland |         0         25 |        25 
                Syria |         0         25 |        25 
               Taiwan |        10          6 |        16 
             Tanzania |         0         15 |        15 
             Thailand |         0         25 |        25 
                 Togo |         0         24 |        24 
                Tonga |         0         11 |        11 
  Trinidad and Tobago |         0         25 |        25 
              Tunisia |         0         25 |        25 
               Turkey |         0         25 |        25 
               Uganda |         0         20 |        20 
              Ukraine |         0          7 |         7 
              Uruguay |         0         25 |        25 
           Uzbekistan |         0          6 |         6 
              Vanuatu |         0         19 |        19 
            Venezuela |         0         21 |        21 
        Western Samoa |         3         18 |        21 
                Yemen |         0          8 |         8 
                Zaire |         0         22 |        22 
               Zambia |         0         24 |        24 
             Zimbabwe |         0         20 |        20 
----------------------+----------------------+----------
                Total |       157      2,483 |     2,640 


. tab country GSPl1 if Model7==1

                      |   GSP Status i,t-1
            Country i |         0          1 |     Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
              Albania |         0          5 |         5 
               Angola |         0          3 |         3 
 Antigua and Barbados |         0          7 |         7 
            Argentina |         2          7 |         9 
              Armenia |         0          2 |         2 
              Bahamas |         1          0 |         1 
              Bahrain |         0          6 |         6 
           Bangladesh |         0          9 |         9 
             Barbados |         0          7 |         7 
              Belarus |         0          3 |         3 
               Belize |         0          9 |         9 
                Benin |         0          9 |         9 
               Bhutan |         0          9 |         9 
              Bolivia |         0          9 |         9 
               Bosnia |         0          4 |         4 
             Botswana |         2          6 |         8 
               Brazil |         0          9 |         9 
             Bulgaria |         0          7 |         7 
         Burkina Faso |         0          8 |         8 
                Burma |         5          0 |         5 
              Burundi |         0          9 |         9 
             Cameroon |         0          8 |         8 
           Cape Verde |         0          8 |         8 
Central African Repub |         0          8 |         8 
                 Chad |         0          8 |         8 
                Chile |         0          9 |         9 
             Colombia |         0          9 |         9 
              Comoros |         0          8 |         8 
                Congo |         0          8 |         8 
           Costa Rica |         0          9 |         9 
        Cote d'Ivoire |         0          9 |         9 
              Croatia |         0          5 |         5 
               Cyprus |         2          6 |         8 
       Czech Republic |         0          4 |         4 
             Djibouti |         0          4 |         4 
             Dominica |         0          7 |         7 
   Dominican Republic |         0          9 |         9 
              Ecuador |         0          9 |         9 
                Egypt |         0          9 |         9 
          El Salvador |         0          9 |         9 
    Equatorial Guinea |         0          8 |         8 
              Estonia |         0          6 |         6 
             Ethiopia |         2          6 |         8 
                 Fiji |         0          9 |         9 
               Gambia |         0          9 |         9 
                Ghana |         0          9 |         9 
              Grenada |         0          7 |         7 
            Guatemala |         0          9 |         9 
               Guinea |         0          8 |         8 
        Guinea-Bissau |         0          8 |         8 
               Guyana |         0          9 |         9 
                Haiti |         0          7 |         7 
             Honduras |         0          9 |         9 
            Hong Kong |         9          0 |         9 
              Hungary |         0          8 |         8 
                India |         0          9 |         9 
            Indonesia |         0          9 |         9 
               Israel |         4          5 |         9 
              Jamaica |         0          9 |         9 
               Jordan |         0          9 |         9 
           Kazakhstan |         0          4 |         4 
                Kenya |         0          9 |         9 
             Kiribati |         0          1 |         1 
                Korea |         9          0 |         9 
            Kyrgyztan |         0          4 |         4 
                 Laos |         8          0 |         8 
               Latvia |         0          5 |         5 
              Lebanon |         0          9 |         9 
              Lesotho |         0          7 |         7 
            Lithuania |         0          5 |         5 
                Macau |         2          6 |         8 
            Macedonia |         0          3 |         3 
           Madagascar |         0          8 |         8 
               Malawi |         0          9 |         9 
             Malaysia |         3          6 |         9 
             Maldives |         3          1 |         4 
                 Mali |         0          9 |         9 
                Malta |         0          8 |         8 
           Mauritania |         5          3 |         8 
            Mauritius |         0          9 |         9 
               Mexico |         5          4 |         9 
           Micronesia |         7          0 |         7 
              Moldova |         0          2 |         2 
              Morocco |         0          9 |         9 
           Mozambique |         0          8 |         8 
              Namibia |         0          6 |         6 
                Nepal |         0          9 |         9 
            Nicaragua |         9          0 |         9 
                Niger |         0          8 |         8 
                 Oman |         0          2 |         2 
             Pakistan |         3          6 |         9 
               Panama |         0          9 |         9 
     Papau New Guinea |         0          8 |         8 
             Paraguay |         0          9 |         9 
                 Peru |         0          9 |         9 
          Philippines |         0          9 |         9 
               Poland |         0          8 |         8 
             Portugal |         8          0 |         8 
              Romania |         3          5 |         8 
               Russia |         0          5 |         5 
               Rwanda |         0          8 |         8 
          Saint Lucia |         0          9 |         9 
Saint Vincent and the |         0          8 |         8 
Sao Tome and Principe |         0          9 |         9 
              Senegal |         0          8 |         8 
           Seychelles |         0          9 |         9 
         Sierra Leone |         0          9 |         9 
            Singapore |         9          0 |         9 
             Slovakia |         0          4 |         4 
             Slovenia |         0          5 |         5 
         South Africa |         0          4 |         4 
            Sri Lanka |         0          8 |         8 
   St Kitts and Nevis |         0          7 |         7 
             Suriname |         0          7 |         7 
            Swaziland |         0          9 |         9 
                Syria |         0          9 |         9 
               Taiwan |         9          0 |         9 
             Tanzania |         0          7 |         7 
             Thailand |         0          9 |         9 
                 Togo |         0          8 |         8 
                Tonga |         0          1 |         1 
  Trinidad and Tobago |         0          9 |         9 
              Tunisia |         0          9 |         9 
               Turkey |         0          9 |         9 
               Uganda |         0          8 |         8 
              Ukraine |         0          4 |         4 
              Uruguay |         0          9 |         9 
           Uzbekistan |         0          3 |         3 
              Vanuatu |         0          1 |         1 
            Venezuela |         0          9 |         9 
        Western Samoa |         3          2 |         5 
                Yemen |         0          7 |         7 
                Zaire |         0          6 |         6 
               Zambia |         0          8 |         8 
             Zimbabwe |         0          9 |         9 
----------------------+----------------------+----------
                Total |       113        880 |       993 


. * Figure 1 *
. graph bar (mean) Duties Tariff Openness if ModelAny==1 & switch==1 & window5==1, over(GSP)

. * Figure 2 *
. newey2 Duties Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(year
> ) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =      1503
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  6,  1496)  =     79.01
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
      Duties |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend1 |   .2932563   .0579294     5.06   0.000     .1796248    .4068878
         IMF |  -.4207498   .3605451    -1.17   0.243    -1.127977    .2864778
      LogGDP |  -.1753366   .1348848    -1.30   0.194    -.4399201    .0892469
   LogIncome |  -2.685768   .2259695   -11.89   0.000    -3.129019   -2.242517
  Landlocked |  -.3235408   .5449197    -0.59   0.553    -1.392428    .7453469
      Growth |   .0559692   .0278133     2.01   0.044      .001412    .1105265
       _cons |   29.15306   2.974048     9.80   0.000     23.31931     34.9868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict partres1 if e(sample), residuals
(1707 missing values generated)

. newey2 Tariff Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(year
> ) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =       821
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  6,   814)  =     37.65
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
      Tariff |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend2 |    .967123   .0814519    11.87   0.000     .8072425    1.127004
         IMF |  -.5668033     1.0339    -0.55   0.584    -2.596228    1.462622
      LogGDP |    2.73472    .401658     6.81   0.000     1.946312    3.523127
   LogIncome |  -7.212454   .8002238    -9.01   0.000      -8.7832   -5.641709
  Landlocked |  -3.127474    1.95077    -1.60   0.109    -6.956607     .701658
      Growth |   .1559945   .0844176     1.85   0.065    -.0097073    .3216963
       _cons |  -10.60996   6.884817    -1.54   0.124    -24.12405    2.904129
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict partres2 if e(sample), residuals
(2389 missing values generated)

. newey2 Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(yea
> r) force


Regression with Newey-West standard errors          Number of obs  =      2640
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  6,  2633)  =    178.04
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend3 |   .3838118   .2042195     1.88   0.060    -.0166352    .7842588
         IMF |   .8157944   1.038576     0.79   0.432    -1.220714    2.852303
      LogGDP |   7.310918   .3236616    22.59   0.000     6.676261    7.945575
   LogIncome |  -10.75796   .7678561   -14.01   0.000    -12.26362   -9.252299
  Landlocked |   2.032308   1.651189     1.23   0.219    -1.205452    5.270068
      Growth |  -.3250077   .1287824    -2.52   0.012    -.5775326   -.0724828
       _cons |  -114.1787   12.12065    -9.42   0.000    -137.9456   -90.41169
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict partres3 if e(sample), residuals
(570 missing values generated)

. sort GSPl1

. graph bar (mean) partres1 partres2 partres3 if ModelAny==1 & switch==1 & window5==1, over(GSPl1
> )

. by GSPl1: su partres1 partres2 partres3 if ModelAny==1 & switch==1 & window5==1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> GSPl1 = 0

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    partres1 |        37   -2.005131    2.736587  -7.751303   4.420794
    partres2 |        36   -3.118437    7.972455  -16.13485     23.869
    partres3 |        78   -6.420725    36.50656  -121.3493   38.56754

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-> GSPl1 = 1

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    partres1 |        88   -1.052488    3.043335  -7.619986   8.122285
    partres2 |        66   -1.706437    11.80604  -18.32888   35.00019
    partres3 |       153    .4012206    33.58252  -138.4749   44.73574


. * Regression Diagnostics Reported in Section 5.1 *
. * Heteroscedasticity Testing *
. reg Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    1503
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,  1495) =   98.34
       Model |  18306.7541     7  2615.25058           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  39757.4499  1495  26.5936119           R-squared     =  0.3153
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3121
       Total |  58064.2039  1502  38.6579254           Root MSE      =  5.1569

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Duties |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   1.662768   .6638998     2.50   0.012     .3604935    2.965042
      Trend1 |   .2761517   .0460787     5.99   0.000      .185766    .3665374
         IMF |  -.5210012     .29127    -1.79   0.074    -1.092343      .05034
      LogGDP |  -.1477049   .0768544    -1.92   0.055    -.2984588     .003049
   LogIncome |   -2.67909   .1473693   -18.18   0.000    -2.968162   -2.390017
  Landlocked |  -.3424807   .4309373    -0.79   0.427    -1.187787    .5028251
      Growth |   .0524608   .0240068     2.19   0.029     .0053703    .0995514
       _cons |   27.11762   1.983486    13.67   0.000      23.2269    31.00833
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. whitetst
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(334 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(432 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)

White's general test statistic :  141.2771  Chi-sq(33)  P-value =  2.4e-15

. reg Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     821
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   813) =   83.88
       Model |  78706.9016     7  11243.8431           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  108985.784   813  134.053855           R-squared     =  0.4193
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.4143
       Total |  187692.686   820  228.893519           Root MSE      =  11.578

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Tariff |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   3.827292   1.572278     2.43   0.015       .74109    6.913495
      Trend2 |   .9328808   .0701102    13.31   0.000     .7952624    1.070499
         IMF |  -.7162559    .868232    -0.82   0.410    -2.420497    .9879846
      LogGDP |   2.805757   .2530895    11.09   0.000     2.308971    3.302543
   LogIncome |  -7.013981   .4493864   -15.61   0.000    -7.896075   -6.131887
  Landlocked |   -3.19238   1.325171    -2.41   0.016     -5.79354   -.5912194
      Growth |   .1611556   .0884394     1.82   0.069    -.0124409     .334752
       _cons |   -16.4171   6.098567    -2.69   0.007    -28.38789   -4.446305
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. whitetst
(540 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(540 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(540 missing values generated)
(540 missing values generated)
(686 missing values generated)
(798 missing values generated)
(540 missing values generated)
(752 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(334 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(432 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)

White's general test statistic :  289.4726  Chi-sq(33)  P-value =  9.2e-43

. reg Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    2640
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,  2632) =  212.32
       Model |  798256.516     7  114036.645           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |   1413608.9  2632  537.085448           R-squared     =  0.3609
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3592
       Total |  2211865.42  2639  838.145288           Root MSE      =  23.175

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   8.457961   1.948404     4.34   0.000     4.637403    12.27852
      Trend3 |   .3558299   .1406921     2.53   0.011     .0799517    .6317081
         IMF |   .5366738   .9778432     0.55   0.583    -1.380745    2.454093
      LogGDP |   7.423621   .2566574    28.92   0.000      6.92035    7.926891
   LogIncome |  -10.56407      .5107   -20.69   0.000    -11.56548   -9.562652
  Landlocked |   2.155144   1.480487     1.46   0.146     -.747891    5.058179
      Growth |  -.3283581   .0707072    -4.64   0.000    -.4670054   -.1897108
       _cons |  -127.2146    8.60442   -14.78   0.000    -144.0867   -110.3425
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. whitetst
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(334 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(432 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)

White's general test statistic :  248.4122  Chi-sq(33)  P-value =  7.2e-35

. reg Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     993
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   985) =   78.46
       Model |  255210.118     7  36458.5883           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  457708.412   985  464.678591           R-squared     =  0.3580
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3534
       Total |  712918.531   992  718.667874           Root MSE      =  21.556

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |    1.68759   .4695638     3.59   0.000       .76613    2.609051
      Trend3 |  -.3904273   .8212667    -0.48   0.635    -2.002061    1.221206
         IMF |  -2.811927   1.513224    -1.86   0.063     -5.78144    .1575869
      LogGDP |   6.334098   .4031715    15.71   0.000     5.542924    7.125272
   LogIncome |  -10.45306   .7828428   -13.35   0.000    -11.98929   -8.916831
  Landlocked |   3.808289    2.31638     1.64   0.100    -.7373178    8.353896
      Growth |  -.6204612   .1085708    -5.71   0.000     -.833518   -.4074045
       _cons |  -132.1884     38.943    -3.39   0.001    -208.6092    -55.7676
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. whitetst
(1741 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(1741 missing values generated)
(1741 missing values generated)
(1741 missing values generated)
(1796 missing values generated)
(1831 missing values generated)
(1741 missing values generated)
(1803 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(236 missing values generated)
(334 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(382 missing values generated)
(432 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)
(332 missing values generated)

White's general test statistic :  286.0349  Chi-sq(34)  P-value =  1.3e-41

. * Multicollinearity *
. corr Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1
(obs=1503)

             |   Duties    GSPl1   Trend1      IMF   LogGDP LogInc~e Landlo~d   Growth
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Duties |   1.0000
       GSPl1 |   0.1466   1.0000
      Trend1 |   0.2461   0.1660   1.0000
         IMF |   0.0228   0.0965  -0.1382   1.0000
      LogGDP |  -0.2348  -0.1662  -0.1641   0.1363   1.0000
   LogIncome |  -0.5278  -0.1256  -0.1676  -0.1872   0.2964   1.0000
  Landlocked |   0.2344   0.0417   0.0384   0.1158   0.0608  -0.5078   1.0000
      Growth |   0.0258   0.0429   0.0970  -0.1877  -0.0042   0.0920  -0.0531   1.0000


. corr Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1
(obs=821)

             |   Tariff    GSPl1   Trend2      IMF   LogGDP LogInc~e Landlo~d   Growth
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Tariff |   1.0000
       GSPl1 |   0.2423   1.0000
      Trend2 |   0.4102   0.2132   1.0000
         IMF |   0.1311   0.1690   0.0173   1.0000
      LogGDP |   0.0597  -0.2412  -0.0367  -0.0997   1.0000
   LogIncome |  -0.4312  -0.3367  -0.0808  -0.3316   0.4481   1.0000
  Landlocked |   0.2115   0.1681   0.0435   0.1920  -0.0606  -0.4987   1.0000
      Growth |   0.0186  -0.0597   0.0015  -0.1529   0.0383   0.0880  -0.0960   1.0000


. corr Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1
(obs=2640)

             |  Closure    GSPl1   Trend3      IMF   LogGDP LogInc~e Landlo~d   Growth
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |   1.0000
       GSPl1 |   0.0663   1.0000
      Trend3 |   0.0355   0.0471   1.0000
         IMF |   0.1932   0.0779  -0.0818   1.0000
      LogGDP |   0.3761  -0.1475  -0.0304   0.1022   1.0000
   LogIncome |  -0.3177  -0.1580  -0.0304  -0.2595   0.3078   1.0000
  Landlocked |   0.3372   0.0367   0.0083   0.1948   0.1295  -0.5284   1.0000
      Growth |  -0.1071  -0.0065   0.0620  -0.1196   0.0162   0.0949  -0.0477   1.0000


. corr Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1
(obs=993)

             |  Closure GSPfra~1   Trend3      IMF   LogGDP LogInc~e Landlo~d   Growth
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |   1.0000
GSPfractio~1 |   0.1589   1.0000
      Trend3 |   0.0058   0.0892   1.0000
         IMF |   0.1749  -0.0054  -0.0045   1.0000
      LogGDP |   0.3062   0.2297  -0.0037   0.0340   1.0000
   LogIncome |  -0.3195   0.0790  -0.0093  -0.3652   0.4005   1.0000
  Landlocked |   0.3323  -0.0917  -0.0209   0.3234   0.0452  -0.5482   1.0000
      Growth |  -0.1718   0.0273  -0.0515  -0.0807   0.0416   0.0993  -0.0578   1.0000


. * Compare OLS to GLS *
. * Hausman test *
. do c:\temp\do.do

. * Model 1 *
. reg Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    1503
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,  1495) =   98.34
       Model |  18306.7541     7  2615.25058           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  39757.4499  1495  26.5936119           R-squared     =  0.3153
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3121
       Total |  58064.2039  1502  38.6579254           Root MSE      =  5.1569

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Duties |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   1.662768   .6638998     2.50   0.012     .3604935    2.965042
      Trend1 |   .2761517   .0460787     5.99   0.000      .185766    .3665374
         IMF |  -.5210012     .29127    -1.79   0.074    -1.092343      .05034
      LogGDP |  -.1477049   .0768544    -1.92   0.055    -.2984588     .003049
   LogIncome |   -2.67909   .1473693   -18.18   0.000    -2.968162   -2.390017
  Landlocked |  -.3424807   .4309373    -0.79   0.427    -1.187787    .5028251
      Growth |   .0524608   .0240068     2.19   0.029     .0053703    .0995514
       _cons |   27.11762   1.983486    13.67   0.000      23.2269    31.00833
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store consistent

. xtgls Duties GSPl1 Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, i(cnum) t(year) 
> pan(het) corr(psar1) force
(note: 3 observations dropped because only 1 obs in group)

Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  generalized least squares
Panels:        heteroskedastic
Correlation:   panel-specific AR(1)

Estimated covariances      =       109          Number of obs      =      1500
Estimated autocorrelations =       109          Number of groups   =       109
Estimated coefficients     =         8          Obs per group: min =         2
                                                               avg =  13.76147
                                                               max =        25
                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    949.06
Log likelihood             = -2716.479          Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Duties |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   .1842276   .1573288     1.17   0.242    -.1241312    .4925865
      Trend1 |   .1007392   .0178574     5.64   0.000     .0657394     .135739
         IMF |  -.1626634   .0790737    -2.06   0.040    -.3176449   -.0076818
      LogGDP |   -.335437   .0584596    -5.74   0.000    -.4500157   -.2208583
   LogIncome |  -2.473178   .1254302   -19.72   0.000    -2.719016   -2.227339
  Landlocked |   .9177225   .3869567     2.37   0.018     .1593013    1.676144
      Growth |   .0224586   .0045655     4.92   0.000     .0135104    .0314067
       _cons |   32.21111   1.231316    26.16   0.000     29.79777    34.62444
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store efficient

. hausman consistent efficient

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |   consistent   efficient      Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |    1.662768     .1842276         1.47854        .6449888
      Trend1 |    .2761517     .1007392        .1754125        .0424777
         IMF |   -.5210012    -.1626634       -.3583379        .2803312
      LogGDP |   -.1477049     -.335437        .1877322        .0498906
   LogIncome |    -2.67909    -2.473178       -.2059123        .0773625
  Landlocked |   -.3424807     .9177225       -1.260203        .1896614
      Growth |    .0524608     .0224586        .0300023        .0235687
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from regress
            B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtgls

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =      266.16
                Prob>chi2 =      0.0000

. est drop consistent efficient

. * Model 2 *
. reg Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     821
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   813) =   83.88
       Model |  78706.9016     7  11243.8431           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  108985.784   813  134.053855           R-squared     =  0.4193
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.4143
       Total |  187692.686   820  228.893519           Root MSE      =  11.578

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Tariff |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   3.827292   1.572278     2.43   0.015       .74109    6.913495
      Trend2 |   .9328808   .0701102    13.31   0.000     .7952624    1.070499
         IMF |  -.7162559    .868232    -0.82   0.410    -2.420497    .9879846
      LogGDP |   2.805757   .2530895    11.09   0.000     2.308971    3.302543
   LogIncome |  -7.013981   .4493864   -15.61   0.000    -7.896075   -6.131887
  Landlocked |   -3.19238   1.325171    -2.41   0.016     -5.79354   -.5912194
      Growth |   .1611556   .0884394     1.82   0.069    -.0124409     .334752
       _cons |   -16.4171   6.098567    -2.69   0.007    -28.38789   -4.446305
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store consistent

. xtgls Tariff GSPl1 Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, i(cnum) t(year) 
> pan(het) corr(psar1) force
(note: 10 observations dropped because only 1 obs in group)

Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  generalized least squares
Panels:        heteroskedastic
Correlation:   panel-specific AR(1)

Estimated covariances      =       101          Number of obs      =       811
Estimated autocorrelations =       101          Number of groups   =       101
Estimated coefficients     =         8          Obs per group: min =         2
                                                               avg =  8.029703
                                                               max =        20
                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   1539.78
Log likelihood             = -2241.892          Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Tariff |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   .5173321   .7232008     0.72   0.474    -.9001155     1.93478
      Trend2 |   .7613585   .0260537    29.22   0.000     .7102941    .8124228
         IMF |  -.4651626   .2669886    -1.74   0.081    -.9884505    .0581254
      LogGDP |    2.07936    .107562    19.33   0.000     1.868543    2.290178
   LogIncome |  -6.307283   .3091163   -20.40   0.000     -6.91314   -5.701426
  Landlocked |  -2.396293   .9371276    -2.56   0.011    -4.233029   -.5595565
      Growth |   .0670132   .0226964     2.95   0.003     .0225292    .1114973
       _cons |   .6637773   3.294377     0.20   0.840    -5.793083    7.120638
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store efficient

. hausman consistent efficient

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |   consistent   efficient      Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |    3.827292     .5173321         3.30996         1.39608
      Trend2 |    .9328808     .7613585        .1715223        .0650895
         IMF |   -.7162559    -.4651626       -.2510934        .8261622
      LogGDP |    2.805757      2.07936        .7263963        .2290954
   LogIncome |   -7.013981    -6.307283       -.7066979        .3261829
  Landlocked |    -3.19238    -2.396293       -.7960868        .9369475
      Growth |    .1611556     .0670132        .0941423        .0854775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from regress
            B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtgls

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =       34.31
                Prob>chi2 =      0.0000

. est drop consistent efficient

. * Model 3 *
. reg Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    2640
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,  2632) =  212.32
       Model |  798256.516     7  114036.645           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |   1413608.9  2632  537.085448           R-squared     =  0.3609
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3592
       Total |  2211865.42  2639  838.145288           Root MSE      =  23.175

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   8.457961   1.948404     4.34   0.000     4.637403    12.27852
      Trend3 |   .3558299   .1406921     2.53   0.011     .0799517    .6317081
         IMF |   .5366738   .9778432     0.55   0.583    -1.380745    2.454093
      LogGDP |   7.423621   .2566574    28.92   0.000      6.92035    7.926891
   LogIncome |  -10.56407      .5107   -20.69   0.000    -11.56548   -9.562652
  Landlocked |   2.155144   1.480487     1.46   0.146     -.747891    5.058179
      Growth |  -.3283581   .0707072    -4.64   0.000    -.4670054   -.1897108
       _cons |  -127.2146    8.60442   -14.78   0.000    -144.0867   -110.3425
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store consistent

. xtgls Closure GSPl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, i(cnum) t(year)
>  pan(het) corr(psar1) force
(note: 2 observations dropped because only 1 obs in group)

Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  generalized least squares
Panels:        heteroskedastic
Correlation:   panel-specific AR(1)

Estimated covariances      =       138          Number of obs      =      2638
Estimated autocorrelations =       138          Number of groups   =       138
Estimated coefficients     =         8          Obs per group: min =         2
                                                               avg =  19.11594
                                                               max =        25
                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   2659.48
Log likelihood             = -8064.923          Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |   .1086301    .633132     0.17   0.864    -1.132286    1.349546
      Trend3 |   .1217931   .0287386     4.24   0.000     .0654663    .1781198
         IMF |   .4291495   .1888036     2.27   0.023     .0591012    .7991977
      LogGDP |   6.641929   .2070203    32.08   0.000     6.236177    7.047682
   LogIncome |  -10.18969   .2692956   -37.84   0.000     -10.7175   -9.661882
  Landlocked |    1.97362   .9078997     2.17   0.030     .1941688     3.75307
      Growth |   -.022797   .0143626    -1.59   0.112    -.0509472    .0053532
       _cons |  -114.9768   5.053961   -22.75   0.000    -124.8824   -105.0712
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store efficient

. hausman consistent efficient

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |   consistent   efficient      Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       GSPl1 |    8.457961     .1086301         8.34933        1.842667
      Trend3 |    .3558299     .1217931        .2340368        .1377256
         IMF |    .5366738     .4291495        .1075244        .9594428
      LogGDP |    7.423621     6.641929        .7816913         .151709
   LogIncome |   -10.56407    -10.18969       -.3743744         .433929
  Landlocked |    2.155144      1.97362        .1815246        1.169427
      Growth |   -.3283581     -.022797       -.3055611        .0692331
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from regress
            B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtgls

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =      145.65
                Prob>chi2 =      0.0000

. est drop consistent efficient

. * Model 7 *
. reg Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     993
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   985) =   78.46
       Model |  255210.118     7  36458.5883           Prob > F      =  0.0000
    Residual |  457708.412   985  464.678591           R-squared     =  0.3580
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.3534
       Total |  712918.531   992  718.667874           Root MSE      =  21.556

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |    1.68759   .4695638     3.59   0.000       .76613    2.609051
      Trend3 |  -.3904273   .8212667    -0.48   0.635    -2.002061    1.221206
         IMF |  -2.811927   1.513224    -1.86   0.063     -5.78144    .1575869
      LogGDP |   6.334098   .4031715    15.71   0.000     5.542924    7.125272
   LogIncome |  -10.45306   .7828428   -13.35   0.000    -11.98929   -8.916831
  Landlocked |   3.808289    2.31638     1.64   0.100    -.7373178    8.353896
      Growth |  -.6204612   .1085708    -5.71   0.000     -.833518   -.4074045
       _cons |  -132.1884     38.943    -3.39   0.001    -208.6092    -55.7676
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store consistent

. xtgls Closure GSPfractionl1 Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model7==1, i(cnum)
>  t(year) pan(het) corr(psar1) force
(note: 4 observations dropped because only 1 obs in group)

Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression

Coefficients:  generalized least squares
Panels:        heteroskedastic
Correlation:   panel-specific AR(1)

Estimated covariances      =       131          Number of obs      =       989
Estimated autocorrelations =       131          Number of groups   =       131
Estimated coefficients     =         8          Obs per group: min =         2
                                                               avg =  7.549618
                                                               max =         9
                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   2208.80
Log likelihood             = -2838.314          Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |    .924741   .1287186     7.18   0.000     .6724572    1.177025
      Trend3 |  -.1944532   .1151088    -1.69   0.091    -.4200623    .0311559
         IMF |  -.0558328   .3242295    -0.17   0.863    -.6913109    .5796454
      LogGDP |   6.893108   .1916666    35.96   0.000     6.517448    7.268768
   LogIncome |  -11.18723   .3968823   -28.19   0.000     -11.9651   -10.40935
  Landlocked |  -2.629415   1.038505    -2.53   0.011    -4.664848   -.5939819
      Growth |  -.1581042   .0285913    -5.53   0.000    -.2141421   -.1020663
       _cons |  -128.8837   6.175082   -20.87   0.000    -140.9866   -116.7807
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est store efficient

. hausman consistent efficient

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |   consistent   efficient      Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSPfractio~1 |     1.68759      .924741        .7628494        .4515769
      Trend3 |   -.3904273    -.1944532       -.1959741        .8131599
         IMF |   -2.811927    -.0558328       -2.756094        1.478081
      LogGDP |    6.334098     6.893108       -.5590098        .3546987
   LogIncome |   -10.45306    -11.18723        .7341652        .6747795
  Landlocked |    3.808289    -2.629415        6.437704        2.070537
      Growth |   -.6204612    -.1581042        -.462357        .1047386
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from regress
            B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtgls

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =       33.79
                Prob>chi2 =      0.0000

. est drop consistent efficient

. * Section 5.2 IV Diagnostics *
. * Results without using GSPl3 as an instrument *
. * Model 4 *
. treatreg Duties Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, treat(GSP=Sanctions
>  GrowthUS Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4814.9791  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4814.6608  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4814.6605  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      1503

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    889.71
Log pseudo-likelihood = -4814.6605              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Duties       |
      Trend1 |   .2418278   .0467547     5.17   0.000     .1501903    .3334653
         IMF |  -.7358967   .2930044    -2.51   0.012    -1.310175   -.1616187
      LogGDP |   -.086569   .1010952    -0.86   0.392     -.284712    .1115739
   LogIncome |  -2.651312   .1714452   -15.46   0.000    -2.987338   -2.315285
  Landlocked |  -.3681859   .4191931    -0.88   0.380    -1.189789    .4534175
      Growth |   .0463932   .0251947     1.84   0.066    -.0029875    .0957739
         GSP |    4.50449   .7072524     6.37   0.000     3.118301    5.890679
       _cons |   23.29893   2.491978     9.35   0.000     18.41474    28.18311
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
   Sanctions |  -1.008097   .1716991    -5.87   0.000    -1.344621    -.671573
    GrowthUS |   .0182268   .0370585     0.49   0.623    -.0544065      .09086
      Trend1 |   .1829399   .0248805     7.35   0.000      .134175    .2317049
         IMF |   .6434562   .1505208     4.27   0.000     .3484408    .9384716
      LogGDP |  -.2308062   .0354711    -6.51   0.000    -.3003282   -.1612841
   LogIncome |  -.0611238   .0622565    -0.98   0.326    -.1831442    .0608967
  Landlocked |   .5911385   .2291134     2.58   0.010     .1420845    1.040193
      Growth |   .0272998   .0119835     2.28   0.023     .0038126     .050787
       _cons |    5.58986   1.101503     5.07   0.000     3.430953    7.748767
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.3171898   .0825059    -3.84   0.000    -.4788983   -.1554812
    /lnsigma |    1.64397   .0346525    47.44   0.000     1.576052    1.711887
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.3069637   .0747316                     -.4453609   -.1542403
       sigma |   5.175674   .1793502                      4.835826    5.539406
      lambda |  -1.588744   .3807218                     -2.334945    -.842543
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    14.78   Prob > chi2 = 0.0001
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. testparm Sanctions GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]Sanctions = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  2) =   35.81
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. predict m if e(sample), xb
(1707 missing values generated)

. gen r=Duties-m if e(sample)
(1707 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth Sanctions GrowthUS if Model1==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    1503
-------------+------------------------------           F(  8,  1494) =    0.15
       Model |  32.6732745     8  4.08415932           Prob > F      =  0.9965
    Residual |  40229.0987  1494  26.9271076           R-squared     =  0.0008
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0045
       Total |   40261.772  1502  26.8054407           Root MSE      =  5.1891

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend1 |   .0030114   .0461508     0.07   0.948    -.0875159    .0935386
         IMF |   .0227187   .2928536     0.08   0.938    -.5517292    .5971666
      LogGDP |  -.0030105   .0769333    -0.04   0.969    -.1539192    .1478982
   LogIncome |  -.0018111    .148485    -0.01   0.990    -.2930723      .28945
  Landlocked |  -.0419924   .4403445    -0.10   0.924    -.9057515    .8217668
      Growth |  -.0021018   .0242694    -0.09   0.931    -.0497074    .0455039
   Sanctions |   .2542213   .4252148     0.60   0.550      -.57986    1.088303
    GrowthUS |    .059264   .0641389     0.92   0.356    -.0665478    .1850758
       _cons |  -.1481871   1.857053    -0.08   0.936    -3.790896    3.494522
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di 1503*0.0008
1.2024

. di chi2tail(1,1503*0.0008)
.27284252

. * no overidentification *
. drop m r

. * Model 5 *
. treatreg Tariff Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, treat(GSP=PercentLe
> ft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.9503  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.9257  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.9102  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.8989  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.8882  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -3348.869  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.8518  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.7887  (not concave)
Iteration 8:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.7299  (not concave)
Iteration 9:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.6709  (not concave)
Iteration 10:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.6295  (not concave)
Iteration 11:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.6081  (not concave)
Iteration 12:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.5792  (not concave)
Iteration 13:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.5425  (not concave)
Iteration 14:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.5183  (not concave)
Iteration 15:  log pseudo-likelihood =  -3348.493  (not concave)
Iteration 16:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3348.0138  
Iteration 17:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3346.4598  
Iteration 18:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3345.7444  
Iteration 19:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3345.7437  
Iteration 20:  log pseudo-likelihood = -3345.7437  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       821

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    331.49
Log pseudo-likelihood = -3345.7437              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Tariff       |
      Trend2 |   .8511674     .06704    12.70   0.000     .7197714    .9825635
         IMF |  -1.102648   .9035858    -1.22   0.222    -2.873643     .668348
      LogGDP |   2.957609   .3476731     8.51   0.000     2.276182    3.639036
   LogIncome |  -6.468001   .6662886    -9.71   0.000    -7.773903     -5.1621
  Landlocked |  -3.135946   1.669945    -1.88   0.060    -6.408978     .137087
      Growth |   .1905321   .0803621     2.37   0.018     .0330252     .348039
         GSP |   11.87203   2.005743     5.92   0.000     7.940847    15.80321
       _cons |   -29.3873   7.159468    -4.10   0.000     -43.4196   -15.35501
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
 PercentLeft |   .0431125    .022578     1.91   0.056    -.0011395    .0873645
        Ally |  -.5818697   .1723549    -3.38   0.001    -.9196791   -.2440603
    Distance |  -.1318954   .0338734    -3.89   0.000     -.198286   -.0655048
   Sanctions |   -.710156   .2544969    -2.79   0.005    -1.208961   -.2113511
    GrowthUS |   .0922228   .0460531     2.00   0.045     .0019603    .1824852
      Trend2 |   .0498358   .0272935     1.83   0.068    -.0036585      .10333
         IMF |   .1516619   .1686858     0.90   0.369    -.1789561      .48228
      LogGDP |  -.0695137   .0441488    -1.57   0.115    -.1560437    .0170162
   LogIncome |  -.3783868   .0877722    -4.31   0.000    -.5504172   -.2063565
  Landlocked |   .1538509   .2381126     0.65   0.518    -.3128413     .620543
      Growth |  -.0248195   .0211851    -1.17   0.241    -.0663415    .0167025
       _cons |     2.1071   1.999458     1.05   0.292    -1.811766    6.025966
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.5112538   .0920158    -5.56   0.000    -.6916015   -.3309061
    /lnsigma |   2.466368   .0448828    54.95   0.000       2.3784    2.554337
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.4709215   .0716097                     -.5990098   -.3193347
       sigma |   11.77959   .5287013                      10.78763    12.86277
      lambda |  -5.547263   .9637022                     -7.436085   -3.658441
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    30.87   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. testparm PercentLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]PercentLeft = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]Ally = 0
 ( 3)  [GSP]Distance = 0
 ( 4)  [GSP]Sanctions = 0
 ( 5)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  5) =   40.61
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. * adequate explanatory power *
. predict m if e(sample), xb
(2389 missing values generated)

. gen r=Tariff-m if e(sample)
(2389 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth PercentLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthU
> S if Model2==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     821
-------------+------------------------------           F( 11,   809) =    0.25
       Model |  385.378738    11  35.0344307           Prob > F      =  0.9936
    Residual |  113535.574   809  140.340635           R-squared     =  0.0034
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0102
       Total |  113920.953   820  138.927991           Root MSE      =  11.847

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend2 |  -.0570007   .1706129    -0.33   0.738    -.3918969    .2778955
         IMF |  -.1822114    .909168    -0.20   0.841    -1.966818    1.602395
      LogGDP |   .0688476   .2810731     0.24   0.807     -.482871    .6205662
   LogIncome |   .0207944   .4755409     0.04   0.965    -.9126451    .9542339
  Landlocked |   .3742172   1.390209     0.27   0.788    -2.354625    3.103059
      Growth |   .0024466   .0924492     0.03   0.979     -.179022    .1839151
 PercentLeft |   .0631157   .1377138     0.46   0.647    -.2072027    .3334341
        Ally |  -.3843667   1.143068    -0.34   0.737    -2.628096    1.859362
    Distance |  -.1592638     .23384    -0.68   0.496    -.6182685    .2997409
   Sanctions |  -2.105018   1.443824    -1.46   0.145    -4.939102    .7290664
    GrowthUS |  -.0401868   .2702921    -0.15   0.882    -.5707434    .4903698
       _cons |   -4.67712   10.82593    -0.43   0.666    -25.92735    16.57311
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di 821*0.0034
2.7914

. di chi2tail(4,821*0.0034)
.59331814

. * no overidentification *
. * Model 6 *
. treatreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, treat(GSP=PercentL
> eft GrowthUS Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12652.249  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12583.895  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -12576.88  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12576.774  
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12576.773  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      2640

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   1860.95
Log pseudo-likelihood = -12576.773              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Closure      |
      Trend3 |   .3153291   .1863632     1.69   0.091    -.0499362    .6805943
         IMF |  -.1751342   .8434128    -0.21   0.836    -1.828193    1.477924
      LogGDP |   7.661686   .3158512    24.26   0.000     7.042629    8.280743
   LogIncome |  -10.06184   .5190896   -19.38   0.000    -11.07924   -9.044441
  Landlocked |   2.424848   1.236923     1.96   0.050     .0005242    4.849172
      Growth |  -.3310739   .1192172    -2.78   0.005    -.5647352   -.0974125
         GSP |    24.0881   7.618048     3.16   0.002     9.157005     39.0192
       _cons |   -152.263    18.5371    -8.21   0.000    -188.5951    -115.931
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
 PercentLeft |   .0597002   .0058835    10.15   0.000     .0481688    .0712316
    GrowthUS |   .0099115   .0233998     0.42   0.672    -.0359513    .0557744
      Trend3 |  -.0319209    .012879    -2.48   0.013    -.0571633   -.0066786
         IMF |   .4093128   .0951408     4.30   0.000     .2228403    .5957854
      LogGDP |  -.1200051   .0253003    -4.74   0.000    -.1695927   -.0704175
   LogIncome |  -.1422645   .0563413    -2.53   0.012    -.2526914   -.0318376
  Landlocked |  -.0834169    .145821    -0.57   0.567    -.3692208     .202387
      Growth |  -.0029535   .0074394    -0.40   0.691    -.0175345    .0116275
       _cons |  -1.437298   .9994572    -1.44   0.150    -3.396198    .5216019
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.3851006   .1896258    -2.03   0.042    -.7567604   -.0134409
    /lnsigma |   3.155302   .0674188    46.80   0.000     3.023164    3.287441
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.3671289   .1640673                     -.6391648   -.0134401
       sigma |   23.46012   1.581654                      20.55622    26.77425
      lambda |  -8.612888   4.308714                     -17.05781   -.1679639
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     4.12   Prob > chi2 = 0.0423
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict m if e(sample), xb
m already defined
r(110);

. drop m r

. predict m if e(sample), xb
(570 missing values generated)

. gen r=Closure-m if e(sample)
(570 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth PercentLeft GrowthUS if Model3==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    2640
-------------+------------------------------           F(  8,  2631) =    0.47
       Model |  2073.83231     8  259.229038           Prob > F      =  0.8779
    Residual |  1450922.95  2631  551.472047           R-squared     =  0.0014
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0016
       Total |  1452996.79  2639  550.586126           Root MSE      =  23.483

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend3 |  -.1059147   .1536261    -0.69   0.491    -.4071549    .1953255
         IMF |     .10578   .9917666     0.11   0.915    -1.838941    2.050501
      LogGDP |   .0197006   .2590035     0.08   0.939    -.4881705    .5275717
   LogIncome |   .0487759   .5165247     0.09   0.925    -.9640599    1.061612
  Landlocked |   .0149258   1.500036     0.01   0.992    -2.926444    2.956296
      Growth |  -.0081239   .0718956    -0.11   0.910    -.1491016    .1328538
 PercentLeft |   .1221055   .0679471     1.80   0.072    -.0111297    .2553407
    GrowthUS |   .2388007   .2451306     0.97   0.330    -.2418676    .7194691
       _cons |  -17.08252   12.06173    -1.42   0.157    -40.73397    6.568919
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di 2640*0.0014
3.696

. di chi2tail(1,2640*0.0014)
.05454308

. drop m r

. * no overidentification *
. quietly treatreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, treat(GSP=
> PercentLeft GrowthUS Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

. testparm PercentLeft GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]PercentLeft = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  2) =  103.76
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. * adequate explanatory power *
. * Model 8 *
. newey2 Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth (GSPfraction=Ally PercentLeft Sanc
> tions) if Model7==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(year) force


IV(2SLS) regression with Newey-West standard errors Number of obs  =       986
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,   978)  =     22.16
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 GSPfraction |   22.77712   6.114233     3.73   0.000     10.77859    34.77564
      Trend3 |  -4.337421   1.735412    -2.50   0.013    -7.742982   -.9318609
         IMF |  -1.111491   2.998913    -0.37   0.711    -6.996535    4.773553
      LogGDP |    2.42145   1.588738     1.52   0.128     -.696278    5.539178
   LogIncome |  -6.836465    1.73282    -3.95   0.000    -10.23694   -3.435992
  Landlocked |   15.77875   5.632052     2.80   0.005     4.726451    26.83104
      Growth |  -.8606002   .3266357    -2.63   0.009    -1.501588   -.2196127
       _cons |   -276.774   73.26504    -3.78   0.000    -420.5488   -132.9993
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  GSPfraction
Instruments:   Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth Ally PercentLeft
               Sanctions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. neweydmexog


                                                   Robust
Wu-Hausman test of exogeneity:  92.77922  F( 1,977)  P-value =  4.9e-21

. quietly ivreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth (GSPfraction=Ally PercentLe
> ft Sanctions) if Model7==1

. overid

Tests of overidentifying restrictions:
Sargan N*R-sq test        0.788  Chi-sq(2)    P-value = 0.6745
Basmann test              0.780  Chi-sq(2)    P-value = 0.6770

. * no problem there *
. * OVERIDENTIFICATION TESTS for excess instruments in Models 4, 5, 6, and 8 *
. * Model 4 *
. * AND EXPLANATORY POWER TESTS for instruments in Models 4, 5, 6, and 8 *
. * Model 4 *
. treatreg Duties Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 San
> ctions GrowthUS Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -4742.402  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3351  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      1503

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    844.12
Log pseudo-likelihood = -4742.3295              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Duties       |
      Trend1 |   .2670177     .04731     5.64   0.000     .1742918    .3597436
         IMF |   -.581536   .3024326    -1.92   0.054    -1.174293    .0112211
      LogGDP |  -.1300478   .1015898    -1.28   0.201    -.3291602    .0690646
   LogIncome |  -2.668188   .1689986   -15.79   0.000     -2.99942   -2.336957
  Landlocked |  -.3463183   .4175391    -0.83   0.407     -1.16468    .4720433
      Growth |   .0510836   .0252712     2.02   0.043     .0015529    .1006143
         GSP |   2.298167   .7657223     3.00   0.003     .7973788    3.798955
       _cons |   26.16631   2.437794    10.73   0.000     21.38832     30.9443
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   2.701435   .2540714    10.63   0.000     2.203465    3.199406
   Sanctions |  -.7904319   .1974638    -4.00   0.000    -1.177454   -.4034099
    GrowthUS |  -.0370915   .0474205    -0.78   0.434    -.1300339    .0558509
      Trend1 |   .1247678   .0265346     4.70   0.000      .072761    .1767746
         IMF |   .5826112   .1618053     3.60   0.000     .2654787    .8997437
      LogGDP |  -.2200893   .0458006    -4.81   0.000    -.3098568   -.1303218
   LogIncome |  -.1237799   .0693402    -1.79   0.074    -.2596842    .0121244
  Landlocked |   .3524495   .2867254     1.23   0.219    -.2095219     .914421
      Growth |   .0269484   .0132509     2.03   0.042     .0009772    .0529196
       _cons |   4.163463   1.221356     3.41   0.001      1.76965    6.557277
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.1014028    .114911    -0.88   0.378    -.3266242    .1238186
    /lnsigma |   1.637619   .0354836    46.15   0.000     1.568072    1.707166
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.1010567   .1137375                     -.3154842    .1231897
       sigma |    5.14291   .1824888                      4.797392    5.513312
      lambda |  -.5197253    .587314                      -1.67084    .6313891
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     0.78   Prob > chi2 = 0.3775
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. testparm GSPl3 Sanctions GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]GSPl3 = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]Sanctions = 0
 ( 3)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  3) =  136.21
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. predict m if e(sample), xb
(1707 missing values generated)

. gen r=Duties-m if e(sample)
(1707 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth GSPl3 Sanctions GrowthUS if Model1==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    1503
-------------+------------------------------           F(  9,  1493) =    0.13
       Model |  30.2677288     9  3.36308098           Prob > F      =  0.9990
    Residual |  39723.3612  1493   26.606404           R-squared     =  0.0008
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0053
       Total |  39753.6289  1502  26.4671298           Root MSE      =  5.1581

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend1 |   .0072711   .0463659     0.16   0.875    -.0836781    .0982204
         IMF |   .0196397    .292548     0.07   0.946     -.554209    .5934883
      LogGDP |  -.0033535   .0768688    -0.04   0.965    -.1541358    .1474289
   LogIncome |   .0017918   .1475991     0.01   0.990    -.2877318    .2913155
  Landlocked |  -.0007483   .4379798    -0.00   0.999    -.8598694    .8583727
      Growth |  -.0020887   .0241326    -0.09   0.931    -.0494262    .0452487
       GSPl3 |   -.366474   .7646397    -0.48   0.632    -1.866356    1.133408
   Sanctions |   .0458498   .4249013     0.11   0.914    -.7876171    .8793168
    GrowthUS |    .060992   .0637971     0.96   0.339    -.0641496    .1861335
       _cons |   .1503293   2.021588     0.07   0.941    -3.815126    4.115784
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di .0008*1503
1.2024

. di chi2tail(2,.0008*1503)
.54815346

. * no overidentification problem *
. * Model 5 *
. treatreg Tariff Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 Per
> centLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3286.9233  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.1327  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0101  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0098  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       821

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    365.74
Log pseudo-likelihood = -3285.0098              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Tariff       |
      Trend2 |   .8846148   .0675258    13.10   0.000     .7522667    1.016963
         IMF |   -.948083   .8943519    -1.06   0.289    -2.700981    .8048146
      LogGDP |   2.893316   .3397927     8.51   0.000     2.227334    3.559297
   LogIncome |  -6.682737   .6694435    -9.98   0.000    -7.994823   -5.370652
  Landlocked |  -3.133501   1.650258    -1.90   0.058    -6.367948    .1009458
      Growth |   .1805696   .0782676     2.31   0.021     .0271679    .3339714
         GSP |   8.447534   1.481695     5.70   0.000     5.543465     11.3516
       _cons |  -23.97096   6.498215    -3.69   0.000    -36.70722   -11.23469
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   2.936278   .4102686     7.16   0.000     2.132166    3.740389
 PercentLeft |   .0010104   .0291783     0.03   0.972     -.056178    .0581988
        Ally |  -.2843102   .2349538    -1.21   0.226    -.7448111    .1761907
    Distance |  -.1309197   .0504278    -2.60   0.009    -.2297565    -.032083
   Sanctions |  -.3889415    .267319    -1.45   0.146     -.912877    .1349941
    GrowthUS |   .0506084   .0541243     0.94   0.350    -.0554733    .1566902
      Trend2 |   .0692868   .0342616     2.02   0.043     .0021353    .1364384
         IMF |  -.0737415   .1833925    -0.40   0.688    -.4331843    .2857012
      LogGDP |  -.0685231   .0653197    -1.05   0.294    -.1965473    .0595011
   LogIncome |  -.5643142   .0933554    -6.04   0.000    -.7472875    -.381341
  Landlocked |    -.23036   .3169829    -0.73   0.467    -.8516352    .3909151
      Growth |    -.02079   .0204849    -1.01   0.310    -.0609397    .0193598
       _cons |   4.277678   2.437573     1.75   0.079    -.4998776    9.055233
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.4733712   .0923817    -5.12   0.000     -.654436   -.2923065
    /lnsigma |     2.4534   .0436188    56.25   0.000     2.367909    2.538891
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.4409192   .0744218                     -.5746487   -.2842563
       sigma |   11.62781   .5071911                      10.67504    12.66562
      lambda |  -5.126925   .9512542                     -6.991349   -3.262502
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    26.26   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. testparm GSPl3 PercentLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]GSPl3 = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]PercentLeft = 0
 ( 3)  [GSP]Ally = 0
 ( 4)  [GSP]Distance = 0
 ( 5)  [GSP]Sanctions = 0
 ( 6)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  6) =   56.15
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. * adequate explanatory power *
. drop m r

. predict m if e(sample), xb
(2389 missing values generated)

. gen r=Tariff-m if e(sample)
(2389 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth GSPl3 PercentLeft Ally Distance Sanctions G
> rowthUS if Model2==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     821
-------------+------------------------------           F( 12,   808) =    0.39
       Model |   644.65316    12  53.7210967           Prob > F      =  0.9662
    Residual |  110359.573   808   136.58363           R-squared     =  0.0058
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0090
       Total |  111004.226   820  135.371008           Root MSE      =  11.687

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend2 |   -.064316   .1683602    -0.38   0.703    -.3947909    .2661589
         IMF |  -.1605656    .900402    -0.18   0.859    -1.927969    1.606837
      LogGDP |   .1025154   .2775091     0.37   0.712    -.4422084    .6472393
   LogIncome |   -.048018   .4711394    -0.10   0.919    -.9728196    .8767836
  Landlocked |   .4211014   1.372922     0.31   0.759    -2.273814    3.116016
      Growth |   .0066908   .0912332     0.07   0.942    -.1723911    .1857728
       GSPl3 |  -1.697285   1.773236    -0.96   0.339    -5.177977    1.783406
 PercentLeft |   .0844406   .1361795     0.62   0.535    -.1828667    .3517479
        Ally |  -.6645969   1.132544    -0.59   0.557    -2.887672    1.558478
    Distance |  -.2847332   .2330742    -1.22   0.222    -.7422356    .1727692
   Sanctions |  -2.237539   1.425516    -1.57   0.117    -5.035691    .5606127
    GrowthUS |  -.0341395   .2666545    -0.13   0.898    -.5575568    .4892777
       _cons |  -4.302225   10.78708    -0.40   0.690    -25.47622    16.87177
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di .0058*821
4.7618

. di chi2tail(5,.0058*821)
.44563655

. * no overidentification problem *
. * Model 6 *
. treatreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1, treat(GSP=GSPl3 Gr
> owthUS Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.608  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -12372.15  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.149  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =      2640

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =   1791.68
Log pseudo-likelihood = -12372.149              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Closure      |
      Trend3 |   .3501329   .1744651     2.01   0.045     .0081875    .6920783
         IMF |   .3284689   .8021363     0.41   0.682    -1.243689    1.900627
      LogGDP |   7.483421   .2504391    29.88   0.000     6.992569    7.974273
   LogIncome |  -10.41562   .5715818   -18.22   0.000     -11.5359   -9.295338
  Landlocked |    2.22535   1.220233     1.82   0.068    -.1662637    4.616963
      Growth |  -.3279909   .1192206    -2.75   0.006     -.561659   -.0943227
         GSP |   11.84621   3.960596     2.99   0.003      4.08358    19.60883
       _cons |   -132.908   10.81167   -12.29   0.000    -154.0985   -111.7176
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   3.070598   .1844431    16.65   0.000     2.709096      3.4321
    GrowthUS |  -.0315654   .0276919    -1.14   0.254    -.0858406    .0227098
      Trend3 |   .0100126   .0128814     0.78   0.437    -.0152346    .0352597
         IMF |   .2919099   .1049607     2.78   0.005     .0861906    .4976292
      LogGDP |  -.0668701   .0292763    -2.28   0.022    -.1242506   -.0094895
   LogIncome |  -.2770887   .0573312    -4.83   0.000    -.3894559   -.1647215
  Landlocked |  -.1407577   .1724121    -0.82   0.414    -.4786792    .1971638
      Growth |   .0080921   .0080712     1.00   0.316    -.0077271    .0239113
       _cons |   2.901656   .8674016     3.35   0.001      1.20158    4.601731
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.1454668   .1029305    -1.41   0.158    -.3472069    .0562733
    /lnsigma |   3.142292   .0586105    53.61   0.000     3.027417    3.257166
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.1444493   .1007828                     -.3338962     .056214
       sigma |   23.15687   1.357235                      20.64384    25.97582
      lambda |  -3.344995   2.362091                     -7.974608    1.284618
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     2.00   Prob > chi2 = 0.1576
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. drop m r

. testparm GSPl3 GrowthUS, eq(GSP)

 ( 1)  [GSP]GSPl3 = 0
 ( 2)  [GSP]GrowthUS = 0

           chi2(  2) =  282.40
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. * adequate explanatory power *
. predict m if e(sample), xb
(570 missing values generated)

. gen r=Closure-m if e(sample)
(570 missing values generated)

. reg r Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth GSPl3 GrowthUS if Model3==1

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =    2640
-------------+------------------------------           F(  8,  2631) =    0.04
       Model |  185.745193     8  23.2181491           Prob > F      =  1.0000
    Residual |  1415489.72  2631  538.004456           R-squared     =  0.0001
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0029
       Total |  1415675.47  2639  536.443907           Root MSE      =  23.195

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           r |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend3 |  -.0194679   .1456466    -0.13   0.894    -.3050613    .2661255
         IMF |  -.0056328   .9791937    -0.01   0.995      -1.9257    1.914435
      LogGDP |  -.0054321   .2568531    -0.02   0.983    -.5090865    .4982223
   LogIncome |  -.0089475   .5097047    -0.02   0.986     -1.00841    .9905151
  Landlocked |  -.0107782   1.481655    -0.01   0.994    -2.916105    2.894548
      Growth |  -.0031576   .0709784    -0.04   0.965    -.1423368    .1360216
       GSPl3 |  -.3920022   2.215155    -0.18   0.860    -4.735625    3.951621
    GrowthUS |   .1336222   .2397457     0.56   0.577     -.336487    .6037314
       _cons |  -.7272961   8.968476    -0.08   0.935    -18.31328    16.85868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. di .0001*2640
.264

. di chi2tail(1,.0001*2640)
.60738532

. * no overidentification problem *
. * Model 8 *
. newey2 Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth (GSPfraction=GSPfractionl3 Percent
> Left GrowthUS Sanctions) if Model7==1, lag(1) i(cnum) t(year) force


IV(2SLS) regression with Newey-West standard errors Number of obs  =       993
maximum lag : 1                                     F(  7,   985)  =     56.06
                                                    Prob > F       =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |             Newey-West
     Closure |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 GSPfraction |   3.098694   1.122681     2.76   0.006      .895573    5.301814
      Trend3 |   -.725594   .9218134    -0.79   0.431    -2.534538     1.08335
         IMF |   -2.65561   1.705369    -1.56   0.120    -6.002184    .6909641
      LogGDP |   6.080719    .576923    10.54   0.000      4.94858    7.212858
   LogIncome |  -10.18376   1.047128    -9.73   0.000    -12.23862   -8.128904
  Landlocked |   4.365923   2.658021     1.64   0.101    -.8501125    9.581958
      Growth |  -.6491812   .2044406    -3.18   0.002     -1.05037   -.2479921
       _cons |  -145.3261   43.13011    -3.37   0.001    -229.9635   -60.68863
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instrumented:  GSPfraction
Instruments:   Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth GSPfractionl3
               PercentLeft GrowthUS Sanctions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. neweydmexgo
unrecognized command:  neweydmexgo
r(199);

. neweydmexog


                                                   Robust
Wu-Hausman test of exogeneity:  6.324903  F( 1,984)  P-value =  .0121

. * validating need for IV model over OLS *
. quietly ivreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth (GSPfraction=GSPfractionl3 
> PercentLeft GrowthUS Sanctions) if Model7==1

. overid

Tests of overidentifying restrictions:
Sargan N*R-sq test        2.158  Chi-sq(3)    P-value = 0.5402
Basmann test              2.139  Chi-sq(3)    P-value = 0.5440

. * no overidentification problem *
. * Sensitivity Testing: Run Models 4-6 on Just those countries ultimately dropped *
. treatreg Duties Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model1==1 & switch==1, treat(G
> SP=GSPl3 Sanctions GrowthUS Trend1 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -978.43229  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -978.19619  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -978.19475  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -978.19475  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       352

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    515.94
Log pseudo-likelihood = -978.19475              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Duties       |
      Trend1 |  -.0314942   .0737973    -0.43   0.670    -.1761342    .1131458
         IMF |    .021265   .4653711     0.05   0.964    -.8908457    .9333756
      LogGDP |  -.0329341     .12279    -0.27   0.789    -.2735981    .2077299
   LogIncome |  -2.170592   .2452493    -8.85   0.000    -2.651272   -1.689912
  Landlocked |    3.85669   .6461853     5.97   0.000      2.59019     5.12319
      Growth |   .0882645   .0283921     3.11   0.002     .0326171    .1439119
         GSP |   2.371379   .7549595     3.14   0.002     .8916853    3.851072
       _cons |   20.39828   2.980458     6.84   0.000     14.55669    26.23987
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   1.453021   .2555668     5.69   0.000     .9521193    1.953923
   Sanctions |  -.6333646     .28587    -2.22   0.027    -1.193659   -.0730696
    GrowthUS |  -.0333409   .0546659    -0.61   0.542    -.1404841    .0738023
      Trend1 |   .3713354   .0574501     6.46   0.000     .2587351    .4839356
         IMF |    1.16976   .2565578     4.56   0.000     .6669158    1.672604
      LogGDP |  -.3926386   .0936699    -4.19   0.000    -.5762283    -.209049
   LogIncome |   .5020154   .1321158     3.80   0.000     .2430731    .7609577
  Landlocked |   1.238678   .5501522     2.25   0.024     .1603998    2.316957
      Growth |   .0445396   .0202367     2.20   0.028     .0048764    .0842028
       _cons |   .9501672   1.906079     0.50   0.618    -2.785679    4.686013
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.3346294   .1865275    -1.79   0.073    -.7002166    .0309578
    /lnsigma |   1.122623   .0475519    23.61   0.000     1.029423    1.215823
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.3226743   .1671065                     -.6045052    .0309479
       sigma |   3.072905   .1461224                      2.799451     3.37307
      lambda |  -.9915475   .5326241                     -2.035472    .0523765
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     3.22   Prob > chi2 = 0.0728
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. treatreg Tariff Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model2==1 & switch==1, treat(G
> SP=GSPl3 PercentLeft Ally Distance Sanctions GrowthUS Trend2 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Gr
> owth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -917.90766  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -917.64894  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -917.50809  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -917.41137  
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -916.1315  
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood = -915.59467  
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -915.58717  
Iteration 7:   log pseudo-likelihood = -915.58716  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       224

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    133.52
Log pseudo-likelihood = -915.58716              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Tariff       |
      Trend2 |   .1422097   .2117632     0.67   0.502    -.2728385    .5572579
         IMF |  -1.044958    2.07695    -0.50   0.615    -5.115705    3.025789
      LogGDP |   3.245602   .7093978     4.58   0.000     1.855208    4.635996
   LogIncome |  -7.672273   1.243426    -6.17   0.000    -10.10934   -5.235202
  Landlocked |    5.54204   2.429687     2.28   0.023     .7799413    10.30414
      Growth |   .0935063   .1402939     0.67   0.505    -.1814646    .3684772
         GSP |   12.40075   4.615488     2.69   0.007     3.354558    21.44694
       _cons |  -12.97405   11.95637    -1.09   0.278     -36.4081       10.46
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
       GSPl3 |   1.740444   .3650886     4.77   0.000     1.024883    2.456004
 PercentLeft |   .0044637   .0346409     0.13   0.897    -.0634313    .0723587
        Ally |  -.3624194   .3430839    -1.06   0.291    -1.034851    .3100126
    Distance |  -.0488614   .0816811    -0.60   0.550    -.2089535    .1112306
   Sanctions |  -.6644791   .3149374    -2.11   0.035    -1.281745   -.0472131
    GrowthUS |   .0420615   .0498382     0.84   0.399    -.0556196    .1397426
      Trend2 |   .1372119   .0411001     3.34   0.001     .0566572    .2177665
         IMF |   .1338483   .2920992     0.46   0.647    -.4386556    .7063521
      LogGDP |  -.1184114    .108867    -1.09   0.277    -.3317869     .094964
   LogIncome |  -.1776829    .128994    -1.38   0.168    -.4305065    .0751408
  Landlocked |   .5547291   .3862728     1.44   0.151    -.2023518     1.31181
      Growth |  -.0185882   .0252219    -0.74   0.461    -.0680222    .0308458
       _cons |   .2397953   3.256521     0.07   0.941    -6.142869    6.622459
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.8730493   .3721154    -2.35   0.019    -1.602382   -.1437164
    /lnsigma |   2.412787   .0970365    24.86   0.000     2.222598    2.602975
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.7029201   .1882545                     -.9220263    -.142735
       sigma |   11.16503   1.083416                      9.231287    13.50385
      lambda |  -7.848123   2.709616                     -13.15887   -2.537373
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     5.50   Prob > chi2 = 0.0190
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. treatreg Closure Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth if Model3==1 & switch==1, treat(
> GSP=Ally Trend3 IMF LogGDP LogIncome Landlocked Growth) robust

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3547.2166  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3407.7802  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3336.6772  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3328.3232  
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3286.9824  
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3263.8722  
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3263.0117  
Iteration 7:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3263.0059  
Iteration 8:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3263.0059  

Treatment effects model -- MLE                  Number of obs      =       602

                                                Wald chi2(7)       =    196.35
Log pseudo-likelihood = -3263.0059              Prob > chi2        =    0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Closure      |
      Trend3 |  -1.015072   .7252003    -1.40   0.162    -2.436438     .406295
         IMF |  -1.404691   3.014199    -0.47   0.641    -7.312412    4.503031
      LogGDP |   9.467748   1.474834     6.42   0.000     6.577127    12.35837
   LogIncome |   -14.2837    2.67466    -5.34   0.000    -19.52593   -9.041458
  Landlocked |   13.89477   5.325293     2.61   0.009     3.457391    24.33216
      Growth |  -.7045989   .4809455    -1.47   0.143    -1.647235     .238037
         GSP |   71.09165   10.27483     6.92   0.000     50.95336    91.22994
       _cons |  -255.5188   50.93041    -5.02   0.000    -355.3405    -155.697
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
GSP          |
        Ally |   .6264339   .0959301     6.53   0.000     .4384143    .8144534
      Trend3 |   .0436406    .014735     2.96   0.003     .0147606    .0725206
         IMF |   .0722414   .0970837     0.74   0.457    -.1180392     .262522
      LogGDP |  -.2564961   .0301052    -8.52   0.000    -.3155012    -.197491
   LogIncome |   .2294744   .0584894     3.92   0.000     .1148373    .3441116
  Landlocked |   .7506176   .1978849     3.79   0.000     .3627703    1.138465
      Growth |   .0039841   .0125178     0.32   0.750    -.0205504    .0285186
       _cons |   6.014924    .880533     6.83   0.000     4.289111    7.740737
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -1.525739   .2877451    -5.30   0.000    -2.089709   -.9617688
    /lnsigma |    3.77777   .1256859    30.06   0.000      3.53143     4.02411
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.9096926   .0496244                     -.9698467   -.7450648
       sigma |   43.71842   5.494791                      34.17279    55.93048
      lambda |  -39.77033   7.031253                     -53.55133   -25.98932
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    28.12   Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * had to change IVs in that last one, because the IVs in Model6 did not have enough explanatory
>  power in this restricted subsample *
. exit, STATA clear
